On December 10th, I published a post titled:
“Energy Is Setting Up for Its Next Big Move.”
No hype.
No urgency marketing.
No chasing headlines.
Just structure, cycles, and positioning before the market cared.
Inside that post was a very specific expression of conviction — not a trade alert, not a guess:
Exxon Mobil (XOM) 3/20 $120 Calls
At the time:
Price: $3.75 per contract
Sentiment: indifferent
Energy: “boring,” “dead,” “uninvestable”
Today’s close:
$27.65 per contract
That’s a +637% move.
And that’s where most people would stop.
I care more about why it happened — because that’s how you find the next one.
Why This Worked (And Why It Wasn’t Random)
Back on December 10th, the conditions were quietly lining up:
The dollar was fading
Commodities were already leading
Refiners were breaking out first
XLE was compressing under multi-year resistance
XOM was sitting on a 3-year base with heavy institutional accumulation
That combination doesn’t drift.
It re-prices.
Options weren’t the risk here.
Being late was.
The More Important Part: The Whole Group Moved
One trade can be luck.
A basket moving together is confirmation.
That’s not stock picking.
That’s sector rotation.
And what is sector rotation?
THE LIFE BLOOD OF A BULL MARKET.
This Is How Real Energy Cycles Resolve
When an energy move is real:
Refiners lead first
Integrated majors reprice next
Services follow with torque
That exact sequence played out.
This is what happens when:
Capital rotates into real assets
Energy goes from “dead money” to must-own
And positioning matters more than narratives
The move didn’t start when headlines changed.
The headlines changed because the move already started.
Why Options Were the Right Tool (But Not the Thesis)
If XOM drifts higher, stockholders do fine.
If XOM breaks out of a multi-year base inside a regime shift, option holders experience time compression.
That’s how:
$3.75 contracts become $27.65
And patience beats prediction
Options didn’t create the return.
Structure did.
This Isn’t a Victory Lap — It’s a Case Study
Anyone can post screenshots after the fact.
Very few are willing to:
Publish conviction before
Explain the framework in advance
Let the trade work without noise
And show the full scoreboard, not just one name
That’s the entire philosophy behind Alpha Before It Prints.
Not prediction.
Not bravado.
Preparation.
The Bigger Point (Don’t Miss This)
Energy didn’t “get lucky.”
It followed a repeatable sequence:
Structural compression
Quiet leadership
Broad confirmation
Violent repricing
This framework will show up again.
In energy.
And elsewhere.
Most people wait for proof.
I prefer being positioned early — and keeping the receipts.
— Connor
Alpha Before It Prints
Conviction ages well. Consensus doesn’t.
P.S if you want your mind blown even more… look what gold did after breaking out of the same structure that energy just broke out of.
GOLD
ENERGY
So ask yourself…
is this move over in energy — or are we just getting started, and most people are still watching from the sidelines?
• Full Alpha Framework Portfolio Allocation
• Weekly Alpha Notes (what changed, what matters, what’s noise)
• Weekly Macro Updates
• Position sizing & conviction levels for every holding
• Before-it-prints setups I’m watching early
• Priority ticker breakdowns (member requests reviewed weekly)
• Charts
• Micro-cap Home Runs
© 2026 Alpha Before It Prints
Unsubscribe