I don’t buy calls because I think something is going straight up tomorrow.
I buy calls when time + structure create asymmetric outcomes.
That’s what this is.
Microsoft isn’t cheap.
It also isn’t extended.
Right now, it’s compressing beneath a key level, while the market debates whether this is exhaustion — or simply digestion before the next leg higher.
That uncertainty is where convexity lives.
The Setup
Daily Chart
4-hour chart flagging directly at the volume shelf
MSFT is trading below a major pivot AVWAP from October 28th.
That level matters.
It represents a zone where:
Prior buyers are waiting for confirmation
Sellers are leaning on overhead supply
Breakouts often fail before they finally stick
Price doesn’t usually slice through levels like this cleanly.
It stalls. It ranges. It frustrates both sides before resolving.
This phase can last longer than most people expect.
That’s the opportunity.
The Trade
MSFT 02/20/2026 $520 Calls
This is not a breakout call.
It’s a time-based convex position.
These calls allow MSFT to:
Continue compressing below resistance
Absorb supply without forcing direction
Let fundamentals, earnings, and AI monetization work in the background
If MSFT clears the pivot sooner, optionality expands quickly.
If it needs months to build, the position survives.
Time isn’t an accessory here.
It’s the edge.
How Convex Alpha Actually Works
Convex Alpha does not use stop losses.
That’s intentional.
Positions are sized from day one with the assumption they can go to zero.
Why?
Because convexity requires:
Staying power through chop
Freedom from being shaken out early
Letting a small number of large winners outweigh many small losses
Most trades fail.
The few that work are designed to matter.
This Framework Has Already Played Out
Using the same convex approach:
FCX → +400%
RIVN → +300%
SCHW → +130%
PL → +400%
CLSK → +600%
Different charts.
Different environments.
Same math.
Options trades like this are shared separately, with full context around:
Duration
Strike selection
Position sizing
How structure evolves as price develops
No alerts.
No forced timelines.
Just the process.
Risk Disclosure
Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors.
Convex Alpha positions are intentionally sized with the understanding that some trades will go to zero. This is not investment advice — it’s a transparent look at how I structure asymmetric risk in my own portfolio.
Know your risk.
Size accordingly.
If you want to follow how convex trades are actually structured — not just called — that’s what Alpha Premium is built around.
If you want to learn more about this options strategy read the Convex Alpha section of this post:
— Connor
Alpha Before It Prints
Upgrade to Alpha Premium — Founding Members keep $14.99/mo or $150/yr permanently.
A quick note on how I express conviction
For anyone wondering how this framework translates into actual positioning:
I run two live portfolios that reflect two very different parts of my thinking.
The Black Sheep Base Case Portfolio is exactly what it sounds like — core positioning for how I expect the broader market to resolve when structure matters more than headlines.
The Alpha Framework Portfolio is different.
That’s where I take long-term swings on smaller companies I believe can materially outperform over full cycles — names that usually look wrong before they look obvious.
A few past examples from that framework:
HIMS — $8.36 → +722% (ATH)
SOFI — $5.84 → +452% (ATH)
PLTR — $26.58 → +679% (ATH)
LMND — $31.31 → +171% (ATH)
ONDS — $1.74 → +532% (ATH)
CIFR — $2.96 → +762% (ATH)
IREN — $5.97 → +1,161% (ATH)
No alerts.
No perfection.
A lot of patience.
That’s not a promise — it’s just context for how I think and how I size risk.
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