Saturday Alpha Notes

This week didn’t feel great if you were glued to the screen.

That’s usually a good sign.

Markets spent most of December doing what strong trends tend to do after a late-November surge:

Grinding. Rotating. Frustrating anyone chasing momentum.

This wasn’t distribution.
This was digestion.

After some early-December chop, leadership rotated back toward Technology this week.

Not explosively.
Not euphorically.
Just enough to matter.

That’s typically how sustainable moves restart.

Key takeaway: leadership didn’t break — it paused.

One of the more important under-the-surface developments is what didn’t happen.

We did not see a broad collapse in participation.

Instead:

That combination usually aligns with continuation, not exhaustion.

Defensive areas remain under pressure while higher-beta leadership groups reassert themselves.

That’s not how markets behave when a major top is forming.

It is how markets behave when they’re preparing for another leg higher — often after shaking out weak positioning first.

Copper continues to act like demand hasn’t rolled over.

That matters.

Copper doesn’t care about narratives — it reflects real-world activity tied to:

As long as Copper holds its structure, the macro backdrop remains supportive.

I like $ERO as a copper play.

This is not the environment to:

It is the environment to:

Which brings me to something coming soon.

I’ve been quietly pressure-testing a very specific framework.

Not day trades.
Not tight stops.
Not prediction-based entries.

This is convex optionality — structuring trades so downside is predefined and accepted, while upside is intentionally left uncapped.

The rule is simple:

Here are recent examples using the exact same framework Convex Alpha will be built around.

This is not cherry-picked.
It’s how the strategy is designed to behave.

Coiled structure.
Longer-dated optionality.
No stop losses.
Sized for zero.

Different sector.
Different catalyst.
Same convex profile.

This isn’t isolated.

The same framework has produced similar outcomes across very different setups:

– XPeng Jan ’26 calls, closed for +250%
– Warner Bros. Discovery short-dated calls, closed for +500%

Different tickers.
Different time horizons.
Same principle.

The framework isn’t rigid on time, either.

In some cases, convexity resolves quickly.

A recent example was PL Jan ’26 $15 calls, opened December 10 and sold half three trading days later for +213%.

Same risk discipline. Same sizing logic. Different tempo.

Most trades won’t work.

That’s not a bug — it’s the feature.

Convex Alpha is designed so you don’t need to be right often, early, or perfectly timed.
You just need a few asymmetric winners that matter.

This is not an alert service.
It’s not meant for everyone.
And it’s intentionally built to filter out people who can’t sit through drawdowns.

More details coming January / February.