Why today’s ADP miss matters — and what it confirms about next week’s rate cut
This morning’s ADP report came in far weaker than expected, and the implications for the market are clear:
Estimate: +10,000 jobs
Actual: –32,000 jobs
Not a great economic print — but for markets, it’s exactly the type of downside surprise that practically locks in a December rate cut.
At this point, it’s not “if” the Fed cuts — it’s whether they go 25bps or take a larger swing.
A negative ADP number does two things immediately:
It kills the “higher for longer” narrative.
It gives the Fed full political and economic cover to ease.
Pair that with:
a weakening Dollar
semiconductors regaining leadership
major indices coiling under prior highs
seasonality turning favorable
…and the setup heading into mid-December becomes even cleaner.
If you want to front-run the Buy Zones, here’s the right way to do it
I say this every week, but it matters even more in environments like this:
You do NOT need to wait for the exact Buy Zone to begin a position.
You just need to treat the Buy Zone as your real sizing level.
If you want to initiate early, here’s the correct framework:
Start small
Don’t try to be perfect
Save room for the Buy Zone
Add heavier when price actually hits your level
Approach the entire position with a long-term lens
This is how disciplined compounding works:
You scale in through volatility, not around it.
Initiating early is totally fine as long as you expect weakness first and size the position accordingly.
The Buy Zones give you the roadmap.
Your job is to follow the plan — not chase candles.
— Connor
Alpha Before It Prints
A quick note on how I express conviction
For anyone wondering how this framework translates into actual positioning:
I run two live portfolios that reflect two very different parts of my thinking.
The Black Sheep Base Case Portfolio is exactly what it sounds like — core positioning for how I expect the broader market to resolve when structure matters more than headlines.
The Alpha Framework Portfolio is different.
That’s where I take long-term swings on smaller companies I believe can materially outperform over full cycles — names that usually look wrong before they look obvious.
A few past examples from that framework:
HIMS — $8.36 → +722% (ATH)
SOFI — $5.84 → +452% (ATH)
PLTR — $26.58 → +679% (ATH)
LMND — $31.31 → +171% (ATH)
ONDS — $1.74 → +532% (ATH)
CIFR — $2.96 → +762% (ATH)
IREN — $5.97 → +1,161% (ATH)
No alerts.
No perfection.
A lot of patience.
That’s not a promise — it’s just context for how I think and how I size risk.
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