Why today’s ADP miss matters — and what it confirms about next week’s rate cut

This morning’s ADP report came in far weaker than expected, and the implications for the market are clear:

Not a great economic print — but for markets, it’s exactly the type of downside surprise that practically locks in a December rate cut.

At this point, it’s not “if” the Fed cuts — it’s whether they go 25bps or take a larger swing.

A negative ADP number does two things immediately:

Pair that with:

…and the setup heading into mid-December becomes even cleaner.

If you want to front-run the Buy Zones, here’s the right way to do it

I say this every week, but it matters even more in environments like this:

You do NOT need to wait for the exact Buy Zone to begin a position.

You just need to treat the Buy Zone as your real sizing level.

If you want to initiate early, here’s the correct framework:

This is how disciplined compounding works:

You scale in through volatility, not around it.

Initiating early is totally fine as long as you expect weakness first and size the position accordingly.

The Buy Zones give you the roadmap.

Your job is to follow the plan — not chase candles.

— Connor
Alpha Before It Prints

You’ve seen the receipts. If you want the same framework applied to the Alpha 40K Portfolio each week.

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