Most investors look at UiPath and stop at the chart.
Down roughly 80% from its highs.
Trading around $16–17.
Sentiment completely shot.
And the conclusion they land on is simple: this business is broken.
That conclusion doesn’t line up with reality.
When this thing breaks above the IPO AVWAP… look out
The business didn’t break — expectations normalized
UiPath is still a scaled, real enterprise software company:
~$1.3B in annual revenue
10,000+ customers
Deep penetration across the Fortune 500
Automation software embedded directly into mission-critical workflows
What changed wasn’t the relevance of the product.
What changed was the timeline investors were pricing in.
Enterprise automation adoption pulled forward during a narrow window when companies were aggressively modernizing operations. That pace was never permanent — but the underlying demand never disappeared.
Automation remains a necessity for organizations trying to:
Reduce cost pressure
Improve margins
Increase productivity without adding headcount
That structural need didn’t go away. It simply normalized.
The financial profile is improving — not deteriorating
This is the part the chart completely hides.
UiPath is now non-GAAP profitable
Free cash flow has turned positive
Operating leverage is beginning to show
Hiring has slowed and sales efficiency is improving
This is not a company scrambling to survive.
It’s a company transitioning into a more durable, self-funded operating model — one that can compound without relying on capital markets.
The balance sheet provides real downside protection
This is one of the most underappreciated parts of the story.
~$1.8B in cash and equivalents
Zero debt
Cash represents roughly 25% of the current market cap
That creates flexibility:
To weather slower enterprise spending
To invest selectively
To avoid dilution entirely
This is not a balance sheet priced for distress.
Valuation reflects extreme skepticism
At roughly 5× forward sales, the market is effectively saying:
“This business will never re-accelerate.”
That’s a strong assumption for a category leader in automation that is:
Profitable
Cash-flow positive
Still growing
Still deeply embedded inside large enterprises
You don’t need heroic assumptions for this to work.
You just need execution to remain steady.
Management stability is being misread
Founder Daniel Dines returning as CEO is often framed as a negative.
I see it as stabilizing.
He’s deeply technical, product-focused, and aligned with long-term value creation. The company has clearly shifted toward discipline, focus, and execution.
That’s not flashy — but it’s exactly what you want at this stage.
Bottom line
The chart looks bad.
The fundamentals are improving.
The balance sheet is strong.
Expectations are washed out.
What matters from here isn’t whether UiPath “works” as a business — it’s what the business is actually worth if execution simply continues.
That’s where opinion stops being useful and the model takes over.
Behind the paywall, I break down:
My forward revenue model for UiPath through FY28
The valuation framework I’m using and why
What UiPath is worth under reasonable execution, not perfection
The options structures I’m personally adding, including timeframe and rationale
This is where numbers replace narratives.
For readers who want to go a step further:
I also offer a separate, optional upgrade for live trade transparency through Savvy Trader.
That includes:
Real-time text and email alerts for every buy and sell
Full visibility into my personal portfolio
Position adds, trims, and exits as they happen
Alpha Premium gives you the why.
Savvy gives you the what and when — delivered live.
You can use one, the other, or both.
If you want access to the full Ui Path model showing my price targets through 2028 and how I’m positioning, that lives inside Alpha Premium.
— Connor
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