Today Changed the Market
Breadth. Rotation. Confirmation. Everything we’ve been calling for finally showed up.
Some days the market gives you noise.
Today gave you direction.
Not from Powell.
Not from the dot plot.
From price action — the only thing that actually matters.
Here’s what today signaled.
1. Equal-Weighted S&P (RSP) Hit New All-Time Highs
This is the biggest development of the day.
RSP finally broke out of a range it’s been stuck in since July — meaning the rally is no longer being held up by a handful of mega-caps.
Broad participation = sustainable upside.
We’ve been saying this for weeks:
“Breadth has to show up before this next leg can happen.”
Today it showed up.
2. Small Caps (IWM) Broke Out — Exactly When It Needed To
IWM didn’t creep higher.
It took out resistance cleanly and closed strong.
When small caps lead, it tells you:
• Risk appetite is back
• Liquidity is improving
• The market is transitioning into a new momentum phase
$280 becomes a realistic January target.
This is exactly the rotation we anticipated once yields settled.
3. Transports (IYT) — And the Freight Market Finally Showing Its First Real Pulse
And while IYT hit new highs today, what’s happening underneath in truckload is far more important.
Transports breaking out isn’t just another green candle — it’s the market acknowledging something people outside this industry haven’t caught onto yet:
Freight is tightening. Quietly. Consistently. And for the first time in two years… meaningfully.
You only see this early if you’ve lived in the trenches of this business.
Desk traders don’t see it.
Economists definitely don’t see it.
But operators do.
And right now, all the early-cycle freight signals are flashing at the same time.
Capacity Is Tightening — And the Real Tells Aren’t on a Spreadsheet
Here’s what I’m seeing behind the scenes — the things that matter long before spot indexes react:
Drivers hanging up in your face when you offer below-market rates
When carriers feel powerless, they negotiate.
When they feel the market turning, they don’t waste their time.Routing guides that suddenly aren’t bulletproof
A year ago, routing guides were impenetrable.
Now? Loads are slipping — and that’s where recoveries start.Customers asking for guaranteed coverage again
This disappeared in 2023–2024.
It only comes back when shippers feel tightening and want insurance.Carriers negotiating up instead of down
Huge tell. You don’t negotiate up unless you have options.Weekend tenders no longer filling instantly
This one is always the canary in the coal mine — weekends tighten first.Spot loads getting multiple calls
If you’ve ever run a brokerage, you know this signal by heart.
It means spot is absorbing overflow.The tone shift on load boards
You can feel when the boards go from “desperate” to “selective.”
We’re there.
These aren’t theories.
These are the receipts you only notice when you’ve actually moved thousands of loads across every market condition — which I have.
These operator-level cues always show up before national indexes confirm the turn.
And the Data Is Finally Starting to Agree
Tender rejections climbing.
NTI pushing higher.
Spot slowly building a base.
It’s not explosive yet — but no real freight bottom ever starts explosive.
It starts exactly like this:
with pressure building quietly in all the places that matter.
Why This Matters for the Bigger Market Move
Freight is a leading indicator of economic momentum.
Transports making new highs at the same moment the truckload market is tightening is not coincidence.
It’s confirmation.
It tells you:
demand isn’t falling
capacity is leaving faster than people think
we’re exiting the oversupplied part of the cycle
And once demand gets any help — which I expect in 2026 as the economy runs hotter — this entire sector will reprice.
My Expectation: Freight Recovery in 2026
If the next administration runs the economy hot — fiscal expansion, manufacturing growth, infrastructure spending — freight doesn’t just improve…
It rips.
With:
record carrier exits over the last 24 months
routing guides weakening
tender rejections rising
spot tightening
transports breaking out
…the setup is stronger than anything we’ve had since 2017 or 2021.
2025 = transition
2026 = expansion
And today’s transport breakout was the market’s way of saying:
“You’re early, but you’re right.”
4. Tesla (TSLA): The Setup Is Simple — $474 Is the Trigger
Nothing about the Tesla structure has changed.
There is one line on the chart that decides everything: $474.
Below $435 → noise.
Above $474 → momentum ignition.
If $474 breaks, the next targets come fast:
• $560
• $581
• Mid-$600s
Tesla moves in expansions, not increments.
This is the kind of setup that can go from “quiet” to “vertical” quickly.
5. Adobe (ADBE): If This Is What Being Disrupted by AI Looks Like, I Want More
The fundamentals are still a machine.
Every trend investors care about is still pointing up:
• ARR growing in every segment
• Revenue staircase
• Net income firming
• Free cash flow still elite
AI didn’t kill Adobe — it strengthened its ecosystem.
Two levels matter:
• $358–$364 zone → reclaim this, and the downtrend is officially over
This is a classic “everyone gave up, then it bases, then it goes” setup.
The Bottom Line
Today wasn’t random.
Today wasn’t noise.
Today was confirmation.
The market rewarded the exact parts of the market we’ve been highlighting for a month:
• Equal-weight
• Small caps
• Transports
• Broad participation
• Real rotation
• Real leadership
This is not how a market tops.
This is how a market starts its next leg.
More tomorrow.
— Connor
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