The more I listen to Scott Bessent, the clearer it becomes:
they’re not being subtle.
They’re telling you exactly what they plan to do.
Markets just aren’t listening yet.
Small-cap growth right now looks eerily familiar. The setup rhymes with August 2018 and November 2020 — long periods of chop, frustration, and false starts, followed by a violent upside repricing once liquidity flips from tight to loose.
Both paths are still on the table.
But here’s the part that matters:
A drawdown first wouldn’t invalidate the thesis.
It would likely complete it.
Direct-to-Consumer Liquidity Is Coming (Again)
Everyone seems to be ignoring what Bessent has said — clearly and repeatedly.
April 2026 brings a large-scale tax refund program, roughly $150B in liquidity, or about $1,000 per worker.
On top of that, Donald Trump has floated $2,000 tariff dividend checks aimed at lower- and middle-income households.
This isn’t abstract stimulus. It’s direct cash.
And we’ve seen this movie before.
In 2020–2021, money was dropped directly into people’s bank accounts. That cash didn’t sit in savings. It flowed straight into:
small-cap stocks
meme names
crypto
NFTs
anything with perceived asymmetry
That’s how you get speculative manias. Not from optimism — from access.
The Fed Pivot Nobody Is Priced For
Here’s the part markets are still underestimating.
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