The consensus narrative is straightforward.

AI spending remains strong.

Earnings remain resilient.

The economy hasn't cracked.

So stocks keep working.

That may be true.

But I think investors are increasingly looking at the market through the wrong lens.

The question is no longer whether growth exists.

The question is whether there is enough capacity to support the expectations already embedded in prices.

What stands out to me is that capital continues to concentrate around the same structural theme: AI infrastructure, semiconductors, power, data centers, and the companies supplying the buildout. At the same time, forecasts for AI-related capital spending continue to move higher rather than lower. Multiple research groups now expect AI investment to remain elevated well into 2027.

That's bullish on the surface.

But it changes the risk profile.

When a theme becomes this large, markets stop reacting to whether demand exists.

They start reacting to whether expectations have become too linear.

The interesting development over the past several weeks is that leadership appears to be broadening underneath the headline AI trade. Some strategists are noting rotation toward adjacent beneficiaries rather than the largest and most crowded winners.

That matters.

Because major market advances rarely end when investors discover a theme.

They become vulnerable when ownership reaches a point where there are few incremental buyers left.

I'm watching for signs that the market is transitioning from "AI winners" to "AI ecosystem."

That sounds subtle.

It's not.

A shift like that would represent capital searching for duration rather than chasing momentum.

The second thing that stands out is the tension between liquidity and rates.

The market still wants to believe AI can overwhelm macro.

Maybe it can.

But recent selloffs have shown how sensitive the trade remains to changes in interest-rate expectations. Strong economic data and inflation concerns have repeatedly triggered sharp drawdowns in semiconductors and growth stocks.

The market isn't debating whether AI exists.

The market is debating what discount rate should be applied to cash flows that may arrive years from now.

That's a very different conversation.

And it's one investors appear to be underestimating.

The public narrative remains focused on whether the rally survives.

The more useful question is where capital goes if the rally evolves rather than breaks.

That's where I'm spending my time.