Here’s how I’m reading today’s tape — stripped down and without the noise:
SPX is digesting, not breaking. We’re hovering around the ~50% retrace of the Nov 20 low → high move. That zone (roughly 6715–6700) is doing what it’s supposed to do: slow things down and force patience ahead of CPI.
Today looks ugly because Tech is heavy. Large-cap Tech is doing most of the damage, which makes the decline feel worse than the underlying reality. When Tech sneezes, the index headlines exaggerate it.
Breadth isn’t great — but it’s not panic. Roughly ~3:2 negative. That’s choppy, not catastrophic. If this were a real problem, you’d see 3:1 or 4:1 downside pressure. We’re not there.
More than half of sectors were green today. That matters. This isn’t broad liquidation — it’s rotation and short-term positioning.
Seasonality still matters. Two bad Decembers in a row would be an outlier. Historically, this window often resolves into a late-December turning point, especially near December expiration.
Key levels I’m watching:
Near-term support: ~6714
Line in the sand: ~6670
As long as 6670 holds on a weekly basis, this looks like consolidation — not trend damage.
Base case: Markets work through this chop and find a short-term low in the next 1–3 trading days.
Translation: If you have a 1–2 month timeframe, today’s weakness is closer to opportunity than danger.
This isn’t the market rolling over — it’s the market frustrating people who are positioned too tightly and thinking too short-term.
More once CPI hits.
— Connor
Alpha Before It Prints
A quick note on how I express conviction
For anyone wondering how this framework translates into actual positioning:
I run two live portfolios that reflect two very different parts of my thinking.
The Black Sheep Base Case Portfolio is exactly what it sounds like — core positioning for how I expect the broader market to resolve when structure matters more than headlines.
The Alpha Framework Portfolio is different.
That’s where I take long-term swings on smaller companies I believe can materially outperform over full cycles — names that usually look wrong before they look obvious.
A few past examples from that framework:
HIMS — $8.36 → +722% (ATH)
SOFI — $5.84 → +452% (ATH)
PLTR — $26.58 → +679% (ATH)
LMND — $31.31 → +171% (ATH)
ONDS — $1.74 → +532% (ATH)
CIFR — $2.96 → +762% (ATH)
IREN — $5.97 → +1,161% (ATH)
No alerts.
No perfection.
A lot of patience.
That’s not a promise — it’s just context for how I think and how I size risk.
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