I’ve been saying this for months.
Where we are right now looks almost identical to 2019/2020.
Not 2022.
Not a blow-off top.
Not late-cycle euphoria.
Early.
Boring.
Ignored.
And four months after I said that? OTHERS.D is starting to do exactly what it did in 2019/2020 — quietly turning up.
And this isn’t just a one-off comparison.
Look at 2016.
Look at 2019/2020.
Now look at today.
Each bottoming phase shared the same three conditions:
Higher time frame chart basing after a long bleed
2W MACD curling up from depressed levels
Business cycle just entering expansion
That’s the setup.
Now compare that to actual cycle tops.
Every major top had the opposite characteristics:
Vertical, blow-off structure
2W MACD rolling over from elevated levels
Business cycle already 12–18 months into expansion
Those are distribution conditions.
This? This is not that.
Every time OTHERS.D has bottomed in this structure, the narrative has been the same:
“Alts are dead.”
“There’s no liquidity.”
“Only Bitcoin matters.”
And every single time, 12–18 months later, alts went on a face-ripping run.
Here’s the uncomfortable truth:
When alts are actually dead, no one is talking about them.
When everyone is declaring them dead… they’re usually early.
Take a hard look at the chart.
Does this resemble a cycle top — or a cycle base?
Be honest.
What’s wild to me is that people will look at objective historical data and call it stupid… simply because it doesn’t match their bias.
This isn’t hopium.
It’s structure.
It’s momentum.
It’s macro alignment.
You don’t have to believe it.
But the market doesn’t care what you believe.
To me, this is very clear.
And the best trades rarely feel comfortable when you put them on.
— Connor
Alpha Before It Prints
© 2026 Alpha Before It Prints
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