This was one of those weeks where the charts feel strong, but the structure is telling us to stay disciplined.

We’re in a better place than we were two weeks ago — no question.
Momentum has improved.
Key sectors have stepped back into leadership.
The U.S. dollar is softening at exactly the right moment.
And the broader indices have repaired a lot of the late-November damage.

But this is NOT a confirmed breakout.
Not yet.

And the probability of a clean, straight-through breakout to new all-time highs right here, right now is actually lower than the probability of a temporary rejection → consolidation → expansion.

This is exactly the moment where the market looks good…
but still needs to prove it.

The index charts look healthy:

But we’re sitting right underneath the prior all-time high — a level that almost always requires:

Before a sustained breakout.

The base case?
A near-term pullback or sideways consolidation before the actual leg higher.

And frankly:
that’s the healthier path.

Markets that launch through all-time highs without a reset tend to fail.
Markets that test, pull back, scare people, then reclaim levels?
Those are the ones that run.

Right now, QQQ/SPX look constructive, not confirmed.

If you want to know where the market is heading, follow semiconductors.

SMH has:

But here’s the nuance:

Even SMH is likely to hit resistance before making new highs.

This isn’t weakness — it’s how strong uptrends build.

Leadership groups often test resistance → back-test key levels → then break out.

That’s bullish behavior disguised as indecision.

The biggest macro positive right now?

Dollar weakness.

A declining Dollar:

This breakdown aligns with seasonal patterns and supports the idea of a stronger tape later in December.

But again — it’s a setup, not a completion.

Seasonality + structure say we’re heading toward a favorable end of December…
but confirmation still comes from the indices.

Latin America (ILF) has been one of the cleanest charts outside the U.S. over the last few weeks.
While U.S. indices were chopping sideways, ILF broke above the mid-November highs and pushed into a full continuation move.

You can see it clearly on your chart:

This is real strength — not speculative rotation.

But here’s the nuance:

It’s running into a multi-year resistance cluster, and breakouts into major supply rarely sustain without a reset.

Still, relative to other EM markets:

Latin America is where the cleaner structure is right now.

FXI is the exact opposite of ILF.

China continues to chop between:

…with zero initiative from buyers.

This is a neutral range:

FXI will eventually break this triangle — and the next move from that breakout will probably be worth trading —
but right now, China is a patience trade.

Your chart says everything:

Until FXI clears $41 with conviction, this isn’t where money is flowing.

This supports the broader macro message:

Strength is selective. Leadership is narrow.
Breakouts are failing until retests happen.
The right names look strong — but even the strong ones are approaching levels where a pullback makes sense.

This week’s tone is simple:

But…

We’re still below the highs.
We’re still at resistance.
We’re still waiting for confirmation.

And historically?

Markets rarely slice through prior highs without first shaking out weak hands.

The most probable pattern here is:

The least probable pattern is:

Doesn’t mean it can’t happen — just that probability isn’t on that side yet.

The structure still points to:

The path is bullish.
The timing is what needs patience.

This is the moment where traders get tricked into thinking “we’re going without me”…
but the market is actually just reloading.

Stay patient.
Watch the anchored levels.
Expect volatility under resistance.
Expect the true breakout to come after the reset.

Right now:

This is where disciplined investors stay patient, not complacent.

We're not early.
We're not late.
We’re exactly where a multi-week coil happens before the next major push.

And the next move will reveal itself — cleanly — once the market rejects or reclaims all-time highs.

Stay tuned.
Stay focused.
And don’t confuse “constructive” with “confirmed.”

— Connor
Alpha Before It Prints

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